As such, it can be confusing to work out what ‘is likely’, and indeed, whether any are particularly realistic. Two important points with these SRES storylines: (i) there is no explicit preference given to any particular scenario, and (ii) they are not active mitigation scenarios (mitigation is a byproduct of economic, social and technology choices). These scenarios were used as a basis for the IPCC 2007 AR4 projections of future climate change. (based on global vs regional action, and different tech pathways). A range of possible future energy and economic development storylines have been developed by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), such as A1FI, A2, B1 etc. That is, there is a ‘missing’ quanta of warming, which is being hidden by a number of poorly understood factors.įirst, let’s consider 21st century carbon emissions mitigation scenarios. The global warming trend over the last 100 years (actually, from 1906 to 2005), of 0.56☌ to 0.92☌, is not all that we would have expected. As explained in my previous post on this topic, the planet is committed to further heating and sea level rise, irrespective of what choices we make now, or in the immediate future, to reduce carbon emissions. Warming ‘in the pipeline’ is a term used to describe lags and inertia in the climate system.
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